Key points

  • 774,456 participants at 31 March 2026, up 13,014 in the quarter. The NDIA dashboard reported around 782,000 active plans at 30 June 2026 (to be confirmed in the Q4 report).
  • Scheme expenses grew 11.3 per cent in the year to March 2026; 2025-26 spending was projected at about $46.2 billion.
  • The 2026-27 Budget projects NDIS expenses of $56.1 billion in 2026-27 and aims to cut payment growth by $37.8 billion over four years.
  • Graeme Head AO became NDIA CEO on 24 November 2025. Mark Butler is Minister for Disability and the NDIS; Senator Jenny McAllister is Minister for the NDIS.
  • The National Agreement on Foundational Supports 2026-31 began on 2 February 2026, capped at $10 billion over five years.

Participants

The March 2026 quarterly report showed 774,456 participants, a 1.7 per cent increase on the previous quarter, with more than 18,500 people entering the scheme in those three months. Children remain the largest group of new entrants, which is the context for Thriving Kids and the January 2028 access changes.

Spending and growth

National Cabinet set an 8 per cent growth target for 2026-27 back in 2023. The 2024-25 Annual Financial Sustainability Report projected growth of 9.4 per cent in 2025-26, falling below 8 per cent from 2026-27. In August 2025 Minister Butler went further, setting a medium-term goal of 5 to 6 per cent. The May 2026 Budget's "Securing the NDIS for Future Generations" package puts $1.7 billion over five years into the reforms and projects expenses of $56.1 billion in 2026-27, $55.1 billion in 2027-28 and $56.2 billion in 2029-30, with growth falling to about 2 per cent by 2029-30 before returning to around 5 per cent from 2030.

The four pillars of that package are: commissioning plan management, support coordination and home and living supports; standardised functional capacity assessments; tighter reassessments and budget resets; and stronger integrity.

Leadership

Graeme Head AO, the inaugural NDIS Quality and Safeguards Commissioner from 2018 to 2021, took over as NDIA CEO on 24 November 2025 for a three-year term, replacing Rebecca Falkingham. Kurt Fearnley AO continues as Board Chair. Since the May 2025 ministry reshuffle, the NDIS sits within the Health portfolio under Mark Butler, with Senator Jenny McAllister as Minister for the NDIS handling most day-to-day announcements.

Foundational Supports

The National Agreement on Foundational Supports 2026-31 commenced on 2 February 2026. It is co-funded 50:50 by the Commonwealth and the states and capped at $10 billion over five years. It covers "general" supports (information, advice, peer support) and "targeted" supports for people who are not NDIS participants. Thriving Kids is the first phase. A model for adults, including psychosocial supports, had not been published as of the May 2026 Budget, and academics have highlighted a gap for young people who are too old for Thriving Kids but not eligible for the NDIS.

Disability Royal Commission

The first progress report on the Royal Commission's recommendations (27 November 2025) showed that of 172 Commonwealth or joint recommendations, 71 were in progress, 51 needed further work, 36 were under consideration, 8 were complete and 6 were noted.

What it means for participants in NSW

Expect a scheme that is more tightly managed, with standardised assessments, fixed plan periods and fewer intermediaries funded from individual plans. The flip side is a growing set of supports outside the NDIS: Thriving Kids from October 2026, NSW targeted supports from January 2027, and the NSW Disability Inclusion Plan 2026-2029 that requires councils and agencies to lodge inclusion action plans. We will keep covering each change as it happens.

Sources

Figures are as published at the dates shown. The 30 June 2026 participant figure is from the NDIA dashboard and should be confirmed against the Q4 2025-26 quarterly report.